Covid-19 in Thailand

Thailand has had surprisingly few Covid-19 infections and deaths reported.  As of today, there are still under 3,000 total confirmed cases and just under 50 total deaths, and Thailand has a population of 70 million and had the first confirmed case outside China.  Granted, they are not testing very widely here.  But one statistic that is very difficult to hide is deaths – total deaths, historical average number of deaths expected, and “excess deaths”, i.e., those that show an abnormal spike above normal average mortality.  Thailand shows no such new spike in excess mortality, unlike countries where this Covid-19 is raging and the spikes of excess deaths are obvious. 

In the world’s coronavirus hotspots, there is also the problem of undercounting deaths that are actually caused by Covid-19, e.g., from not counting deaths at home without testing, etc.  The smoking gun here is the concurrent rise in deaths labeled as “All other deaths” along with those officially testing as “Covid-19”.  What else could be causing these dramatic spikes in excess deaths?  (Please see this Chart covering some of these hotspots.)  Countries such as Italy and the Netherlands suggest quite a radical undercounting.  Spain and France also look to be undercounting.  The UK and New York City count differently but still show probable undercounting. 

My point here is that Thailand somehow is not (yet) experiencing massive increases in deaths, despite the virus landing here early with massive Chinese tourism as well as many infected Thais returning from abroad.  I cannot explain it but can try to guess.  We are in a declared emergency, with stay-at-home guidelines, night curfew, borders practically closed, holidays canceled, etc.  We have all long been wearing masks when out and we keep our distance. 

One thing:  Thais do not shake hands (or hug in public).  After ten years here, on my first visit to America I was repelled by the handshaking culture there, and considered it “dirty”.  It is also colder in most of the USA, and much of the time one is in tightly sealed houses. That December I had the worst head cold I’d had in a full decade. 

North America’s flu season is from October to April, therefore – according to some theories – there is some hope that the coming five months of milder weather may moderate the transmission of the Covid-19 virus also.  Let’s hope so, and also hope that the next flu season starting in the autumn doesn’t see a resurgence of this virus. 

Conversely, flu season in Thailand is during our Rainy Season, roughly from about June through October (depending on the year).  Some medical folks here are worried that we might see a serious increase in our Covid-19 infections then.  We’ll see.  Perhaps our hot weather – such as we’ve been having especially now in our Hot Season – has made this virus less deadly so far. 

In more cheerful news, we are all well here.  We don’t get out much, but we’re not bored.  For a hermit like me, I’m not missing much except for the occasional wanderings into the city that I used to do. 

-Zenwind. 

.